USDJPY, SP500, US 10y T-bill, and oil outlook
Antonios Papadimitriou; the founder of Businesslynch.com had the opportunity to meet with chief market analyst Michael Hewson at CMC Markets, and independent trader Paul Wallace. In this friendly and highly intellectual gathering, were the discussions covered technical analysis, market sentiment, geopolitical factors, and fundamental analysis including USDJPY, SP500, Silver, Coffee, & government bonds.
There was a commonly held view in the conference room that the oil price currently remains in a longer channel trend with temporary breakouts at sight, and with a strong resistance level at 54.
In addition, Saudi Arabia is reluctant to promote an overly high or extremely low oil price, as well as many oil regions are further likely to sell-off existing excess supply due to an ongoing change in the environment moving towards renewable energy.
A substantial increase in the oil price would not be seen as strategic advantage by many oil producing countries as this likely would give further head winds for renewable energy according to Michael Hewson.
Also, according to below oil charts, Businesslynch.com awaits a bounce at lower Fib level, before entering a new trade. Another commonly held market view is that the oil price likely will trade between the level of 50-60 in 2017. Actual market sentiment also favors a buy signal.
During the gathering with Paul, and Michael, it was announced that SP500, may have difficulties to go beyond 2211 unless Donald Trumps' planned actions of decreased corporate taxes, and a boost in infrastructure would yield abnormal financial stimulus for the economy. But the FED also plans for upcoming rate hikes, which together with an enhanced USD likely imply a negative impact on the export business. A bounce on Fib 0 or Fib 23 could be a safer bet in this channel trade according to the view of businesslynch.com
10Y US T-Notes
Expected rate hike by the FED and the collapse of gov. bond prices in several markets make for another good trading opportunity, and businesslynch.com awaits an entry formation on the daily chart as viewed below in terms of a pennant, flag, or break-away pattern.
Do you remember our blog from 20 November http://www.businesslynch.com/blog/20161120-how-to-trade-usdjpy mentioning anticipated break-out which actually took place after some market noise and indecision viewed below. We were right, although it took some more time for a break-out on the upswing.
As of today, it is expected, that the USDJPY should peak, due to the ongoing Japanese QE program, low interest rates environment, and stagnating economic conditions. Read more about the Japanese economic outlook here: http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan
However, as of below charts and with different time horizons, not supporting each other, we await a temporary setback before entering a new trend (bounce on Fib 50?)
Disclaimer: Businesslynch.com is not a regulated financial advisory business and above information shall be treated in educational purpose. Businesslynch.com is not liable for any investment or trading activities performed by its readers
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