Live meeting with CMC Markets' Chief Analyst Michael Hewson

USDJPY, SP500, US 10y T-bill, and oil outlook 

 
 

Antonios Papadimitriou; the founder of Businesslynch.com had the opportunity to meet with chief market analyst Michael Hewson at CMC Markets, and independent trader Paul Wallace. In this friendly and highly intellectual gathering, were the discussions covered technical analysis, market sentiment, geopolitical factors, and fundamental analysis including USDJPY, SP500, Silver, Coffee, & government bonds. 

 
 Antonios Papadimitriou and Michael Hewson

Antonios Papadimitriou and Michael Hewson

 

Oil 

There was a commonly held view in the conference room that the oil price currently remains in a longer channel trend with temporary breakouts at sight, and with a strong resistance level at 54.

In addition, Saudi Arabia is reluctant to promote an overly high or extremely low oil price, as well as many oil regions are further likely to sell-off existing excess supply due to an ongoing change in the environment moving towards renewable energy.

A substantial increase in the oil price would not be seen as strategic advantage by many oil producing countries as this likely would give further head winds for renewable energy according to Michael Hewson.

Also, according to below oil charts, Businesslynch.com awaits a bounce at lower Fib level, before entering a new trade. Another commonly held market view is that the oil price likely will trade between the level of 50-60 in 2017. Actual market sentiment also favors a buy signal.      

 Source: Crude oil sentiment 4 Dec 2016 by investing.com 

Source: Crude oil sentiment 4 Dec 2016 by investing.com 

 Comment: The oil price has been stuck in a longer channel pattern, on the weekly chart showing light crude oil on futures 

Comment: The oil price has been stuck in a longer channel pattern, on the weekly chart showing light crude oil on futures 

 A break-out of Fib 100 could indicate a new channel trade between the 50 and 80 level. However, there is a possibility that the oil price will continue to bounce between the 50 and 29 level in the long run as of actual macro economy, geopolitical trends and OPEC policies. 

A break-out of Fib 100 could indicate a new channel trade between the 50 and 80 level. However, there is a possibility that the oil price will continue to bounce between the 50 and 29 level in the long run as of actual macro economy, geopolitical trends and OPEC policies. 

SP500

During the gathering with Paul, and Michael, it was announced that SP500, may have difficulties to go beyond 2211 unless Donald Trumps' planned actions of decreased corporate taxes, and a boost in infrastructure would yield abnormal financial stimulus for the economy. But the FED also plans for upcoming rate hikes, which together with an enhanced USD likely imply a negative impact on the export business. A bounce on Fib 0 or Fib 23 could be a safer bet in this channel trade according to the view of businesslynch.com 

Further Reading

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-forecast-for-2016-worse-than-last-year-2015-12-28

10Y US T-Notes

Expected rate hike by the FED and the collapse of gov. bond prices in several markets make for another good trading opportunity, and businesslynch.com awaits an entry formation on the daily chart as viewed below in terms of a pennant, flag, or break-away pattern. 

 US 10y T-bill, Monthly Chart 

US 10y T-bill, Monthly Chart 

 US 10y T-bill, Weekly Chart

US 10y T-bill, Weekly Chart

 US 10y T-bill, Daily Chart

US 10y T-bill, Daily Chart

USDJPY

Do you remember our blog from 20 November http://www.businesslynch.com/blog/20161120-how-to-trade-usdjpy mentioning anticipated break-out which actually took place after some market noise and indecision viewed below. We were right, although it took some more time for a break-out on the upswing. 

 USDJPY 30 min chart 20 Nov, see our  previous blog . The break-out occurred on the 23 of Nov, following an indifferent price movement. 

USDJPY 30 min chart 20 Nov, see our previous blog. The break-out occurred on the 23 of Nov, following an indifferent price movement. 

As of today, it is expected, that the USDJPY should peak, due to the ongoing Japanese QE program, low interest rates environment, and stagnating economic conditions. Read more about the Japanese economic outlook here: http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan

However, as of below charts and with different time horizons, not supporting each other, we await a temporary setback before entering a new trend (bounce on Fib 50?)

To learn more about our trading and digital strategies, visit www.businesslynch.com/pdf, www.businesslynch.com/online-tutorials and our VIP Trading room. You may also contact us below, and shortly explain your inquiry and we will get back to you as soon as possible. 

 
 

Disclaimer: Businesslynch.com is not a regulated financial advisory business and above information shall be treated in educational purpose. Businesslynch.com is not liable for any investment or trading activities performed by its readers 

Copyright © Businesslynch.com, Antonios Papadimitriou, 2016. All rights reserved.